2011年中国钢铁产业喜忧参半
China's steel industry in 2011 is half delight and half worried
发布于2011-10-24 16:28 | 次阅读
Released on 2011-10-24 16:28 | readings
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《经济日报》1月25日发表了由经济日报社中经产业景气指数研究中心,国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心完成的《中国钢铁产业产业景气指数报告》。该报告指出,2011年钢铁行业发展的形势比较复杂。中国经济在“十二五”期间的重点是转型,所以2011年不大可能有2009年以来的投资高增长;再次,国际金融危机以来的以基础设施建设为主的大规模投资趋势会有很大变化,更多的投资将是以战略性新兴产业投资为代表的转型投资。

 在这种背景之下,2011年中国的钢铁行业仍旧会有平稳发展,但是钢铁行业的结构性需求矛盾可能会进一步体现,即高端产品供不应求,低端产品产能过剩。尽管2011年的钢铁产业景气度继续保持平稳走势,消费市场也趋于平稳,出口价格会有所升高,但是当前钢铁行业市场需求相对比较平淡,出口受政策影响增速明显回落,同时库存和应收账款则呈上升态势。在市场需求不旺和节能减排压力加大的双重影响下,钢铁生产持续回落。尽管钢铁产品价格有所上升,但由于上游产品价格升幅更大,钢铁行业盈利情况虽在本季度略有回暖,但在整个工业行业中几乎处于最低水平,进而影响到钢铁行业的投资和用工的增长。有关部门和钢铁企业面对机遇与挑战,应从以下方面加以应对:

一要注重生产技术升级,调整钢铁产品结构。“十二五”规划的产业调整,对钢铁产品的需求结构产生很大影响。钢铁企业应当投入充足的开发和维护费用,加大科研投入,在产品结构上进行扩展和升级,结合战略性新兴产业对原料的需求,调整产品结构,使生产过程和产品在更符合节能减排相关要求的同时,满足市场对高端钢铁产品的需求。

二要在加快钢铁企业兼并重组的同时,鼓励钢铁企业向下游行业延伸。一方面要加快跨地区钢铁企业的重组合并工作,提高全行业产业集中度;另一方面鼓励做大做强的钢铁企业构筑下游产业链,向品种、质量、采购、销售、管理和资金运作等要效益。例如,可以通过在全国区域内建立钢材加工配送中心,增加新的盈利点,进一步巩固客户关系,从而对钢铁主业的发展形成支撑。

三要适当扶持国内矿山发展,保障铁矿石供应安全。一直以来,我国国产矿石因为开采成本大等原因,其开发一直受到制约。目前我国铁矿石进口很大程度上受国际三大铁矿石企业操纵下的进口矿石市场影响,这为国内矿开发创造了好的契机。相关部门应当从审批和税收等方面适当支持钢铁的企业探矿找矿工作,鼓励国产铁矿石资源的开发利用。

On January 25 this year, Economic Daily published the Report of industry climate index of China's steel industry completed by the industry climate index research center of Economic Daily and the monitoring center of China industry climate index of National Bureau of Statistics. The report pointed out that the development situation of steel industry in 2011 would be complex. The most important part of Chinese economy in the period of “12th five-year plan” is the economic transformation, so perhaps there would be no high increase of investment like that of 2009 in 2011; and the situation of large scale investment of infrastructure construction since the international financial crisis would change a lot, more investment would be transformation investment focused on the emerging industries. 

Under the background, the steel industry of China in 2011 would have stable development, but the structural contradiction of steel industry maybe more obvious, which means that the high-end product is in short supply and there is overcapacity in low-end products. Although the climax index of steel industry of China in 2011 will maintain stable trend, the consumer market would also be stable and the export prices will be higher, the demand in the current steel industry is relatively ordinary. Influenced by policy, increasing rates of the export has been dropped obviously. At the same time, the storage and accounting receivable have increased. Under the dual influences of feeble market demand and the pressure of energy conservation and pollution reduction, the steel production has decreased steadily. Although the price of steel has increased, the price increase of the high-end product is bigger. Although the profitability of the steel industry in the quarter is slightly warmer, it is at the lowest level in the entire industrial sector, thereby affecting the investment and employment growth of steel industry. Facing opportunities and challenges,related departments and steel companies should take following measures:

First, focus on upgrading production technology and adjusting the structure of steel products. The industry transformation of “the 12th five-year plan” has great influence to the demand structure of steel products. Steel industry should make enough investment of development and maintaining, enhance the technology research and upgrade the product structure. Considering the demand of emerging industry for the raw materials, the steel industry should adjust the product structure in order to fulfill the demand for high-end steel in the market, at the same time making the manufacturing process and product conform the related requirements of energy saving. 

Second, encourage steel industry to reach to the downstream industries, at the same time speeding up mergers and acquisitions of iron and steel enterprises. On one hand, the work of mergers and acquisitions of regional iron and steel enterprises and improving the  concentration ratio in the entire industry should be speeded up; one the other hand, the already strong steel enterprise should be encouraged to establish downstream industry chain and gain benefits from variety, quality, procurement, sales, management ,capital operation and so on. For example, through the establishment of the steel processing and distribution centers within the country for new revenue, we could further strengthen the customer relationships, and thus support the iron and steel industry development. 

Third, support the development of the domestic mining in order to ensure the security of supply of iron ore. From long time ago, because of reasons such as high mining cost, there are many limitations for the development of domestic ore mining. The importation of iron ore has been influenced by the imported ore market controlled by three international ore enterprises, which provides good opportunity for the development of domestic ore mining. The relevant departments should properly support the exploration and mining work of iron and steel enterprises in approval process and taxation to encourage the development and utilization of domestic iron ore resources. 

《经济日报》1月25日发表了由经济日报社中经产业景气指数研究中心,国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心完成的《中国钢铁产业产业景气指数报告》。该报告指出,2011年钢铁行业发展的形势比较复杂。中国经济在“十二五”期间的重点是转型,所以2011年不大可能有2009年以来的投资高增长;再次,国际金融危机以来的以基础设施建设为主的大规模投资趋势会有很大变化,更多的投资将是以战略性新兴产业投资为代表的转型投资。

 在这种背景之下,2011年中国的钢铁行业仍旧会有平稳发展,但是钢铁行业的结构性需求矛盾可能会进一步体现,即高端产品供不应求,低端产品产能过剩。尽管2011年的钢铁产业景气度继续保持平稳走势,消费市场也趋于平稳,出口价格会有所升高,但是当前钢铁行业市场需求相对比较平淡,出口受政策影响增速明显回落,同时库存和应收账款则呈上升态势。在市场需求不旺和节能减排压力加大的双重影响下,钢铁生产持续回落。尽管钢铁产品价格有所上升,但由于上游产品价格升幅更大,钢铁行业盈利情况虽在本季度略有回暖,但在整个工业行业中几乎处于最低水平,进而影响到钢铁行业的投资和用工的增长。有关部门和钢铁企业面对机遇与挑战,应从以下方面加以应对:

一要注重生产技术升级,调整钢铁产品结构。“十二五”规划的产业调整,对钢铁产品的需求结构产生很大影响。钢铁企业应当投入充足的开发和维护费用,加大科研投入,在产品结构上进行扩展和升级,结合战略性新兴产业对原料的需求,调整产品结构,使生产过程和产品在更符合节能减排相关要求的同时,满足市场对高端钢铁产品的需求。

二要在加快钢铁企业兼并重组的同时,鼓励钢铁企业向下游行业延伸。一方面要加快跨地区钢铁企业的重组合并工作,提高全行业产业集中度;另一方面鼓励做大做强的钢铁企业构筑下游产业链,向品种、质量、采购、销售、管理和资金运作等要效益。例如,可以通过在全国区域内建立钢材加工配送中心,增加新的盈利点,进一步巩固客户关系,从而对钢铁主业的发展形成支撑。

三要适当扶持国内矿山发展,保障铁矿石供应安全。一直以来,我国国产矿石因为开采成本大等原因,其开发一直受到制约。目前我国铁矿石进口很大程度上受国际三大铁矿石企业操纵下的进口矿石市场影响,这为国内矿开发创造了好的契机。相关部门应当从审批和税收等方面适当支持钢铁的企业探矿找矿工作,鼓励国产铁矿石资源的开发利用。

On January 25 this year, Economic Daily published the Report of industry climate index of China's steel industry completed by the industry climate index research center of Economic Daily and the monitoring center of China industry climate index of National Bureau of Statistics. The report pointed out that the development situation of steel industry in 2011 would be complex. The most important part of Chinese economy in the period of “12th five-year plan” is the economic transformation, so perhaps there would be no high increase of investment like that of 2009 in 2011; and the situation of large scale investment of infrastructure construction since the international financial crisis would change a lot, more investment would be transformation investment focused on the emerging industries. 

Under the background, the steel industry of China in 2011 would have stable development, but the structural contradiction of steel industry maybe more obvious, which means that the high-end product is in short supply and there is overcapacity in low-end products. Although the climax index of steel industry of China in 2011 will maintain stable trend, the consumer market would also be stable and the export prices will be higher, the demand in the current steel industry is relatively ordinary. Influenced by policy, increasing rates of the export has been dropped obviously. At the same time, the storage and accounting receivable have increased. Under the dual influences of feeble market demand and the pressure of energy conservation and pollution reduction, the steel production has decreased steadily. Although the price of steel has increased, the price increase of the high-end product is bigger. Although the profitability of the steel industry in the quarter is slightly warmer, it is at the lowest level in the entire industrial sector, thereby affecting the investment and employment growth of steel industry. Facing opportunities and challenges,related departments and steel companies should take following measures:

First, focus on upgrading production technology and adjusting the structure of steel products. The industry transformation of “the 12th five-year plan” has great influence to the demand structure of steel products. Steel industry should make enough investment of development and maintaining, enhance the technology research and upgrade the product structure. Considering the demand of emerging industry for the raw materials, the steel industry should adjust the product structure in order to fulfill the demand for high-end steel in the market, at the same time making the manufacturing process and product conform the related requirements of energy saving. 

Second, encourage steel industry to reach to the downstream industries, at the same time speeding up mergers and acquisitions of iron and steel enterprises. On one hand, the work of mergers and acquisitions of regional iron and steel enterprises and improving the  concentration ratio in the entire industry should be speeded up; one the other hand, the already strong steel enterprise should be encouraged to establish downstream industry chain and gain benefits from variety, quality, procurement, sales, management ,capital operation and so on. For example, through the establishment of the steel processing and distribution centers within the country for new revenue, we could further strengthen the customer relationships, and thus support the iron and steel industry development. 

Third, support the development of the domestic mining in order to ensure the security of supply of iron ore. From long time ago, because of reasons such as high mining cost, there are many limitations for the development of domestic ore mining. The importation of iron ore has been influenced by the imported ore market controlled by three international ore enterprises, which provides good opportunity for the development of domestic ore mining. The relevant departments should properly support the exploration and mining work of iron and steel enterprises in approval process and taxation to encourage the development and utilization of domestic iron ore resources. 

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