The Macroeconomic Policy faces Dilemma
Released on 2011-10-21 19:01 | readings
专访人物周小川，中国人民银行行长兼货币政策委员会主席。
问：作为央行行长，是否很难权衡加息问题？
答：我觉得多数央行的政策工具，都存在两难。因为这个经济体有不同的利益主体，你想使得手里少数几项货币政策的工具，满足所有不同利益群体的要求，是很困难的。拿汇率来理解，汇率升高的时候，出口者可能抱怨，而进口者却说这个可能有好处，他的东西可以卖便宜点，市场打大一点。除了利益群体以外，还有对整体经济的影响。比如说可能对增长好，对物价不一定太好，这种大板块上需要权衡。再有一个就是时间跨度上，有些政策短期看好，但是对中长期不见得有利。而另外有一些中长期有利，短期可能还要忍受一点代价，所以这些都表明了这种权衡或两难的关系。因此，所谓宏观的决策，就是站在这个更全局更总量的立场，把近期和中长期结合起来，综合考虑，做出权衡，所以每一项政策出台，按理说都存在着不同程度的两难。
问：您在考量每一个政策的时候，会不会首先考虑资本市场的反应？
答：早起来讲，投资者觉得政府的影响非常大，上市公司反正它那些数据也看不明白，甚至说披露是否足够真实充分也不太清楚。所以在这种情况下，他们就更多地看政府。现在来讲，经常是你政策还没出台，有一部分提前吸收了。因此大家看得比较宽了，也看国际，也看国内宏观，我们也尽量在做出政策的时候，把资本市场的反应作为一种考虑，尽量地兼顾。但是大家都知道，少数的政策如果兼顾到所有的面，不见得都能顾得到，最后可能也要有所取舍。
问：直接融资和间接融资比例的发展方向？
答：从中国现状来讲，我们在加大直接融资比例方面还有巨大的空间。这些年直接融资的规模都有了巨大的增长，但是与此同时，你在一个高储蓄国家里头，发现它的间接融资增长得也蛮快的，所以这个比例关系的改变还不够，我们可能还需要一些措施，而这些措施也涉及到一些重大的改革措施。这些改革措施在那样的一种条件下，可能能够使直接融资和间接融资的比例关系发生进一步的转变或者是更明显的转变。就是说可能将来直接融资主体的一个很重要的力量就是养老金。
问：直接融资的主体和趋势是怎样的？
答：现在直接融资主体，除了个人自己配置的资产以外，我们看到的主要的机构投资力量，一个是养老金，一个是股指投资基金，再有一个就是保险业，这是在金融机构里的几个主力。至于说国际上现在也开始出现一些新的，有人叫影子银行，有人叫新型的机构，这个还需要进一步的观察，特别是对冲基金和私募股权基金，这个可以有稳步的发展，但是还要注意观察。
Interviewer: Zhou Xiaochuan, President of People's Bank of China and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee.
Q: As a president of People’s Bank of China, do you think it’s difficult to decide to raise exchange rate?
A: I think dilemma exists among most of the central bank's policy instrument. On account of different interests subjects are involved in this economy. It’s difficult to meet the requirements of all interest groups with only a few monetary policy tools on hand. Taking exchange rate for instance, as exchange rate increases, exporters may complain while the importers may happy since they can sell things cheaper and the market would be broader. In addition to interest groups, the overall economy system would be affecting, for example, when it’s beneficial for economy growth but may be bad for the commodity prices, and this trade-off has seen on the whole picture. On the perspective of the time span, some policy is beneficial for short-term policy, but not necessarily good for the long-term benefit which shows trade-off or relationship dilemma. So, the macro decisions require standing on a broader perspective by taking into account of both short and long-term benefit and then balancing. Therefore, the publicity of every policy has a dilemma to some extent.
Q: Will the capital market reaction first come into your mind when you make a decision?
A: On the early stage, investors think the government has great affect on their decision since they don’t understand the relevant information from the public companies and they doubt the authority and the full disclosure of the information. In this case, investors rely more on government. Nowadays, before the new policy being issued, some companies already sensed the government’s policy. Therefore, people take consideration of more factors from the view of internationally, macroeconomics and the capital market reaction. However, as we all know, if a policy has to meet all requirements from the whole perspective, there’s a tradeoff in the end as always.
Q: What’s the future trend of the proportion of direct financing and indirect financing?
A:In the eye of the current situation of China, there’s a big room to increase the direct financing. In recent years, the size of direct financing has experienced a tremendous growth, but at the same time as in a high saving country, the indirect financing increased along, as a result, the proportion of the two is still stable. To increase the proportion, we have to take some measures which involve some significant reform. In the future, pension could be an important object of direct financing.
Q: What are the object and trend for direct financing?
A: The main objects of direct financing are personal disposable assets, and capital from institutional investors which includes pension, stock index investment fund, and insurance industry. There is a new object appears recently that some people call it "shadow banking" or "new organization". The new object requires further observation, especially for hedge funds and private equity funds which could develop more stably.
专访人物周小川，中国人民银行行长兼货币政策委员会主席。
问：作为央行行长，是否很难权衡加息问题？
答：我觉得多数央行的政策工具，都存在两难。因为这个经济体有不同的利益主体，你想使得手里少数几项货币政策的工具，满足所有不同利益群体的要求，是很困难的。拿汇率来理解，汇率升高的时候，出口者可能抱怨，而进口者却说这个可能有好处，他的东西可以卖便宜点，市场打大一点。除了利益群体以外，还有对整体经济的影响。比如说可能对增长好，对物价不一定太好，这种大板块上需要权衡。再有一个就是时间跨度上，有些政策短期看好，但是对中长期不见得有利。而另外有一些中长期有利，短期可能还要忍受一点代价，所以这些都表明了这种权衡或两难的关系。因此，所谓宏观的决策，就是站在这个更全局更总量的立场，把近期和中长期结合起来，综合考虑，做出权衡，所以每一项政策出台，按理说都存在着不同程度的两难。
问：您在考量每一个政策的时候，会不会首先考虑资本市场的反应？
答：早起来讲，投资者觉得政府的影响非常大，上市公司反正它那些数据也看不明白，甚至说披露是否足够真实充分也不太清楚。所以在这种情况下，他们就更多地看政府。现在来讲，经常是你政策还没出台，有一部分提前吸收了。因此大家看得比较宽了，也看国际，也看国内宏观，我们也尽量在做出政策的时候，把资本市场的反应作为一种考虑，尽量地兼顾。但是大家都知道，少数的政策如果兼顾到所有的面，不见得都能顾得到，最后可能也要有所取舍。
问：直接融资和间接融资比例的发展方向？
答：从中国现状来讲，我们在加大直接融资比例方面还有巨大的空间。这些年直接融资的规模都有了巨大的增长，但是与此同时，你在一个高储蓄国家里头，发现它的间接融资增长得也蛮快的，所以这个比例关系的改变还不够，我们可能还需要一些措施，而这些措施也涉及到一些重大的改革措施。这些改革措施在那样的一种条件下，可能能够使直接融资和间接融资的比例关系发生进一步的转变或者是更明显的转变。就是说可能将来直接融资主体的一个很重要的力量就是养老金。
问：直接融资的主体和趋势是怎样的？
答：现在直接融资主体，除了个人自己配置的资产以外，我们看到的主要的机构投资力量，一个是养老金，一个是股指投资基金，再有一个就是保险业，这是在金融机构里的几个主力。至于说国际上现在也开始出现一些新的，有人叫影子银行，有人叫新型的机构，这个还需要进一步的观察，特别是对冲基金和私募股权基金，这个可以有稳步的发展，但是还要注意观察。
Interviewer: Zhou Xiaochuan, President of People's Bank of China and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee.
Q: As a president of People’s Bank of China, do you think it’s difficult to decide to raise exchange rate?
A: I think dilemma exists among most of the central bank's policy instrument. On account of different interests subjects are involved in this economy. It’s difficult to meet the requirements of all interest groups with only a few monetary policy tools on hand. Taking exchange rate for instance, as exchange rate increases, exporters may complain while the importers may happy since they can sell things cheaper and the market would be broader. In addition to interest groups, the overall economy system would be affecting, for example, when it’s beneficial for economy growth but may be bad for the commodity prices, and this trade-off has seen on the whole picture. On the perspective of the time span, some policy is beneficial for short-term policy, but not necessarily good for the long-term benefit which shows trade-off or relationship dilemma. So, the macro decisions require standing on a broader perspective by taking into account of both short and long-term benefit and then balancing. Therefore, the publicity of every policy has a dilemma to some extent.
Q: Will the capital market reaction first come into your mind when you make a decision?
A: On the early stage, investors think the government has great affect on their decision since they don’t understand the relevant information from the public companies and they doubt the authority and the full disclosure of the information. In this case, investors rely more on government. Nowadays, before the new policy being issued, some companies already sensed the government’s policy. Therefore, people take consideration of more factors from the view of internationally, macroeconomics and the capital market reaction. However, as we all know, if a policy has to meet all requirements from the whole perspective, there’s a tradeoff in the end as always.
Q: What’s the future trend of the proportion of direct financing and indirect financing?
A:In the eye of the current situation of China, there’s a big room to increase the direct financing. In recent years, the size of direct financing has experienced a tremendous growth, but at the same time as in a high saving country, the indirect financing increased along, as a result, the proportion of the two is still stable. To increase the proportion, we have to take some measures which involve some significant reform. In the future, pension could be an important object of direct financing.
Q: What are the object and trend for direct financing?
A: The main objects of direct financing are personal disposable assets, and capital from institutional investors which includes pension, stock index investment fund, and insurance industry. There is a new object appears recently that some people call it "shadow banking" or "new organization". The new object requires further observation, especially for hedge funds and private equity funds which could develop more stably.