12月PMI指数首次下滑,预示经济软着陆
The first decline of PMI index in December signaling the decline of economy
发布于2011-10-21 18:31 | 次阅读
Released on 2011-10-21 18:31 | readings
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据中国物流与采购联合会(CFLP)的统计,2010年12月中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为53.9%。

在此之前,2010年7月PMI指数为51.2%; 8月PMI指数为51.7%;9月份该指数为53.8%。

2010年12月该指数与去年同期的56.6%相比,下降了2.7%;与2010年11月份的55.2%和10月份的54.8%相比,分别下降了1.3%和0.9%。与2010年8月与7月的指数相比,分别下降了2.2%和2.7%;降幅呈现递增趋势。这也是该指数在近期5个月以来出现的首次下跌。但是该指数仍保持在50%之上,意味着中国制造业的增长在近期内不会消减。

有分析师表示,在11项指数中,新订单指数和购进价格指数降幅较大,分别为2.9%和6.8%;而新订单指数下降,主要原因是国外消费旺季已过,需求回落较大,总体上还是国内需求大于国外需求,值得引起关注;另一方面,虽然新出口订单指数、原材料库存指数、产成品库存指数和供应商配送时间等指数上升,但升幅都较小,基本在1%内。有宏观经济分析师指出,在总需求增长回落背景下,原材料库存指数虽还在上升,终将受此影响而下降。

虽然PMI下滑,但不必过于担忧,也不能因此而错过了控制通胀的时机。有经济学家指出, PMI指数下降,属于主动性调整。它是有助于货币政策趋于稳健、加快经济结构调整和稳定物价等一系列活动的。

所以即使PMI去年12月出现5个月以来的首次下跌,也非完全不利。至少,它帮助降低经济过热的风险,缓和通胀压力。

未来中国政府的政策仍将以应对通胀而非保持增长为着力点,努力削弱来自美国第二轮量化宽松政策的影响。与此同时,也可能在未来数月通过小幅加息来稳定通胀预期。 

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) statistics, in December 2010, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.9%.
 
Prior to this, in July 2010, the PMI index was 51.2%; In August, the PMI index was 51.7%; In September the figure was 53.8.
 
The PMI index in December 2010, compared to the same period of 2009’s 56.6%, showed a decline of 2.7%; compared to last November’s 55.2% and October’s 54.8%, the index decreased by 1.3 and 0.9 percentage points respectively; compared to last August and  July PMI index, it decreased by 2.2% and 2.7% respectively; The decline showed an upward trend. This is the first time that the index showing decline in the past five months. But the PMI index remains above 50%, which means that the growth of China's manufacturing industry will not abate in the near future.
 
Some analysts stated that among the 11 indexes, the decreasing rate of the new orders index and the purchasing price index was large, which was 2.9 and 6.8 percentage points respectively. The decrease of new orders index was mainly due to the already past foreign spending boom season; this caused the demand to fall greater, and the overall domestic demand was greater than the foreign demand. This needs people’s more attention;
 
On the other hand, although the new export orders index, raw materials inventory index, finished goods inventory index, supplier delivery time index increased, but the increase rates were small, basically within 1 percentage point. A macroeconomic analyst pointed out that, with the falling aggregate demand growth, although the raw materials inventory index was rising, it would decline ultimately.
 
Although the PMI is falling, we do not need to worry much, and we cannot miss the opportunity to control inflation. Some economists point out that the fall of PMI index was part of the initiative adjustment. It is helpful to the monetary policy stability, speeding up economic restructuring, price stability and series activities.
 
So, even if PMI showed the first decline in last December, it had its positive sides, for example: it helped to reduce the risk of economic overheating and moderate the inflation pressures.
 
In the future, the Chinese government's policy will continue to fight against inflation rather than focus on growth, and also to weaken impact of the U.S. second round’s quantitative loosing policy.
 

At the same time, we may also increase the interest rate to stabilize inflation expectations in the coming months 

据中国物流与采购联合会(CFLP)的统计,2010年12月中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为53.9%。

在此之前,2010年7月PMI指数为51.2%; 8月PMI指数为51.7%;9月份该指数为53.8%。

2010年12月该指数与去年同期的56.6%相比,下降了2.7%;与2010年11月份的55.2%和10月份的54.8%相比,分别下降了1.3%和0.9%。与2010年8月与7月的指数相比,分别下降了2.2%和2.7%;降幅呈现递增趋势。这也是该指数在近期5个月以来出现的首次下跌。但是该指数仍保持在50%之上,意味着中国制造业的增长在近期内不会消减。

有分析师表示,在11项指数中,新订单指数和购进价格指数降幅较大,分别为2.9%和6.8%;而新订单指数下降,主要原因是国外消费旺季已过,需求回落较大,总体上还是国内需求大于国外需求,值得引起关注;另一方面,虽然新出口订单指数、原材料库存指数、产成品库存指数和供应商配送时间等指数上升,但升幅都较小,基本在1%内。有宏观经济分析师指出,在总需求增长回落背景下,原材料库存指数虽还在上升,终将受此影响而下降。

虽然PMI下滑,但不必过于担忧,也不能因此而错过了控制通胀的时机。有经济学家指出, PMI指数下降,属于主动性调整。它是有助于货币政策趋于稳健、加快经济结构调整和稳定物价等一系列活动的。

所以即使PMI去年12月出现5个月以来的首次下跌,也非完全不利。至少,它帮助降低经济过热的风险,缓和通胀压力。

未来中国政府的政策仍将以应对通胀而非保持增长为着力点,努力削弱来自美国第二轮量化宽松政策的影响。与此同时,也可能在未来数月通过小幅加息来稳定通胀预期。 

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) statistics, in December 2010, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.9%.
 
Prior to this, in July 2010, the PMI index was 51.2%; In August, the PMI index was 51.7%; In September the figure was 53.8.
 
The PMI index in December 2010, compared to the same period of 2009’s 56.6%, showed a decline of 2.7%; compared to last November’s 55.2% and October’s 54.8%, the index decreased by 1.3 and 0.9 percentage points respectively; compared to last August and  July PMI index, it decreased by 2.2% and 2.7% respectively; The decline showed an upward trend. This is the first time that the index showing decline in the past five months. But the PMI index remains above 50%, which means that the growth of China's manufacturing industry will not abate in the near future.
 
Some analysts stated that among the 11 indexes, the decreasing rate of the new orders index and the purchasing price index was large, which was 2.9 and 6.8 percentage points respectively. The decrease of new orders index was mainly due to the already past foreign spending boom season; this caused the demand to fall greater, and the overall domestic demand was greater than the foreign demand. This needs people’s more attention;
 
On the other hand, although the new export orders index, raw materials inventory index, finished goods inventory index, supplier delivery time index increased, but the increase rates were small, basically within 1 percentage point. A macroeconomic analyst pointed out that, with the falling aggregate demand growth, although the raw materials inventory index was rising, it would decline ultimately.
 
Although the PMI is falling, we do not need to worry much, and we cannot miss the opportunity to control inflation. Some economists point out that the fall of PMI index was part of the initiative adjustment. It is helpful to the monetary policy stability, speeding up economic restructuring, price stability and series activities.
 
So, even if PMI showed the first decline in last December, it had its positive sides, for example: it helped to reduce the risk of economic overheating and moderate the inflation pressures.
 
In the future, the Chinese government's policy will continue to fight against inflation rather than focus on growth, and also to weaken impact of the U.S. second round’s quantitative loosing policy.
 

At the same time, we may also increase the interest rate to stabilize inflation expectations in the coming months 

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