对于新到来的2011年,专家,分析师对中国的经济发展进行了预测.他们表示在国内，发展环境总体仍会处于相对比较宽松的状态.但国际经济环境并不太乐观，这使得今年全球经济复苏可能会充满波折，对中国出口方面的增长会形成较大压力。这里主要对中国的税收, 消费需求与物价上涨作简要分析。

 

据统计,去年1-11月,全国财政收入76740.51亿元,同比增长了13347.41亿元,增长21.1%。全国财政收入中的税收收入68332.36亿元, 增长22.7%; 非税收入8408.15亿元, 增长9.1%。这样看来,税收的增长对去年财政收入增长贡献最大.

 

不过，2011年仍然会是增税之年。因为计划中的减税主要是针对个人所得税及增值税的。

 

并且在今年，地方政府会面临转变增长方式，使得一些相关产业受到约束的问题，这样地方财政收入将会有减少。此外，我们还要考虑到一些补偿事宜, 以避免中央与地方财政关系恶化。

 

今年，预计全年消费品零售总额实际增长14%左右，呈放慢趋势。这主要是由于受到不断上涨的房价等因素的影响。预计, 2011年房地产的消费增长会放慢。再就是受消费增长周期的影响，消费增长将有小幅调整。

 

另外,中国的房地产业已经成为诸多经济矛盾的汇集点。在2010年，全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格同比上涨6.4%，连续第4个月出现环比上涨。因此，2011年，继续坚定不移地推进房地产市场调控，努力使房价稳定在合理的价位，这是政府的重要目标。

 

总的来说,今年宏观经济政策的重点是更加积极稳妥地处理好保持经济平稳较快发展和管理通胀预期的关系，把稳定价格总体水平放在更加突出的位置。 

For the new 2011, experts and analysts made predictions on the Chinese economic development. They indicated that the overall domestic development environment will still in a comfortable state. But the international economic environment is not that optimistic; it makes the global economic recovery of this year full of twists and exerts large pressure on China's export growth. Here we brief analyze the Chinese tax, consumption demand and rising prices.

 

According to statistics, last year from 1-11, national fiscal income was 76740.51 billion yuan, increased 13347.41 billion yuan on year-to-year basis; the growth rate was 21.1%. The tax income in National fiscal income was 68332.36 billion yuan, increased by 22.7%; non - tax income was 8408.15 billion yuan, increased by 9.1%. In this way, the tax increase contributed the most to the last year’s revenue growth.

 

However, 2011 will still be a year with increasing tax. Because the tax cut plan is mainly for personal income tax and value added tax.

 

Also this year, the local government will face the changing mode of growth, which makes some related industries face constrains; local fiscal income will be reduced. We want to consider some compensation measures to avoid the relations between central and local governments to get worse.

 

This year, the total consumption retail sales are expected to be around 14%, which is a slowing trend. This is mainly due to rising property prices and other factors; it is expected that in 2011, the growth of real estate consumption will slow down. Moreover, due to the cycle effects of consumption growth, consumption growth will have a slight adjustment.

 

In addition, Chinese real estate industry has become the focus of economic contradictions. In 2010, housing sales price rose 6.4% over the same period of previous year in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide; it has been the fourth consecutive months of rising trends on month-to-month basis. Therefore, in 2011, the government's main goal is to continue to firmly advance the regulation of the real estate market and strive to make the housing price stabilized in a reasonable price.

 

In general, this year the key of macroeconomic policy is to more actively and prudently to maintain stable and rapid economic development, manage inflation expectations, and put the goal of stabilizing prices in a more prominent place.