China: The Internationalization of RMB Needs a Long Process
Released on 2011-10-24 14:50 | readings
中国主席胡锦涛近日指出：人民币国际化会是一个相当漫长的过程。他反对任何有关将人民币在较短时间内发展成为一个新的储备货币的建议，胡锦涛说：“一国货币在世界范围被广泛接受是需要很长一段时间。”他同时表示：中国有能力，有信心稳定目前的总物价水平。
今年，持续的通胀压力是中国经济面临的巨大威胁。通胀使中国面临流动性泛滥、负的实际利率、工资高速上涨以及大宗商品价格飙升等一系列问题。
现在，存在以人民币升值来抑制通胀的需求。同时，资本的持续流入进一步加大了人民币升值的压力。
有金融机构预计，2011年人民币实际有效汇率将上升5％。2011年12月，人民币实际有效汇率指数为120.53，比11月相比上升1.67%。2010年全年，人民币实际有效汇率上升4.72%。 多家机构预测，人民币2011年可能升值4% -6%。推动人民币升值的因素主要包括缓慢的经济复苏、高失业率等。
但有中国经济学家指出：仅仅靠人民币升值在促进我国贸易出口方面起不关键作用。因为美国等国家可以从别国家进口中国不生产的商品。据中国海关数据显示，中国去年的贸易顺差收窄6.4%，至1，831亿美元。虽然贸易顺差总体水平有所下降，但中国2010年对美国的贸易顺差扩大26.4%，至1，812.7亿美元。
胡锦涛指出，正在进行的人民币跨境贸易结算和投资交易试点是中国为应对国际金融危机而准备的，目的在于促进贸易和协助投资。
同时，中国将加强知识产权保护，通过向所有在华企业提供透明的法律和政策环境、开放的市场环境以及有效率的行政管理环境，为企业的增长提供便利。
Recently, Chinese President Hu Jintao pointed out that the internationalization of RMB will be a very long process. He opposed any related proposal of developing RMB to become a new reserve currency in a relatively short period. Hu Jintao said: "It takes a long time for a country's currency to be widely accepted worldwide." He also stated that: China has the ability and confidence to stabilize the current price level.
This year, the continued inflation pressure is a big threat to China's economy. China faces the overflowing liquidity, negative real interest rates, rising wages, high large-scale commodity prices and other problems caused by inflation. Now, there exists the need of appreciating RMB to control inflation. Meanwhile, the continued inflow of capital further increases the pressure on RMB appreciation.
Some financial institutions predicted that the real effective exchange rate in 2011 will rise by 5%. In December 2011, the RMB real effective exchange rate index was 120.53, rose 1.67% compared with November. In the entire year of 2010, the RMB real effective exchange rate increased by 4.72%. Many institutions forecasted that RMB may appreciate by 4%-6% in 2011. The main factors driving RMB to appreciate included the slow economic recovery, high unemployment rate, etc.
But Chinese economists stated that: simply depending on RMB appreciation is not a key role to prompt China's export. Because the United States and other countries can import goods which China does not produce from other nations.
According to Chinese customs data, it showed that last year China's trade surplus declined 6.4%, to $1, 83.1 billion. Although the overall trade surplus had declined, China's trade surplus with the United States in 2010 rose 26.4%, to $1, 81.27 billion.
Hu Jintao pointed out that the ongoing cross-border RMB trade settlement and experimental investment and trading units of China are aimed at coping with the international financial crisis. The purpose is to promote trade and assist investment.
Meanwhile, China will strengthen intellectual property protection; by providing a transparent legal and policy environment, an open market environment and an efficient administrative environment to facilitate enterprises’ growth.
中国主席胡锦涛近日指出：人民币国际化会是一个相当漫长的过程。他反对任何有关将人民币在较短时间内发展成为一个新的储备货币的建议，胡锦涛说：“一国货币在世界范围被广泛接受是需要很长一段时间。”他同时表示：中国有能力，有信心稳定目前的总物价水平。
今年，持续的通胀压力是中国经济面临的巨大威胁。通胀使中国面临流动性泛滥、负的实际利率、工资高速上涨以及大宗商品价格飙升等一系列问题。
现在，存在以人民币升值来抑制通胀的需求。同时，资本的持续流入进一步加大了人民币升值的压力。
有金融机构预计，2011年人民币实际有效汇率将上升5％。2011年12月，人民币实际有效汇率指数为120.53，比11月相比上升1.67%。2010年全年，人民币实际有效汇率上升4.72%。 多家机构预测，人民币2011年可能升值4% -6%。推动人民币升值的因素主要包括缓慢的经济复苏、高失业率等。
但有中国经济学家指出：仅仅靠人民币升值在促进我国贸易出口方面起不关键作用。因为美国等国家可以从别国家进口中国不生产的商品。据中国海关数据显示，中国去年的贸易顺差收窄6.4%，至1，831亿美元。虽然贸易顺差总体水平有所下降，但中国2010年对美国的贸易顺差扩大26.4%，至1，812.7亿美元。
胡锦涛指出，正在进行的人民币跨境贸易结算和投资交易试点是中国为应对国际金融危机而准备的，目的在于促进贸易和协助投资。
同时，中国将加强知识产权保护，通过向所有在华企业提供透明的法律和政策环境、开放的市场环境以及有效率的行政管理环境，为企业的增长提供便利。
Recently, Chinese President Hu Jintao pointed out that the internationalization of RMB will be a very long process. He opposed any related proposal of developing RMB to become a new reserve currency in a relatively short period. Hu Jintao said: "It takes a long time for a country's currency to be widely accepted worldwide." He also stated that: China has the ability and confidence to stabilize the current price level.
This year, the continued inflation pressure is a big threat to China's economy. China faces the overflowing liquidity, negative real interest rates, rising wages, high large-scale commodity prices and other problems caused by inflation. Now, there exists the need of appreciating RMB to control inflation. Meanwhile, the continued inflow of capital further increases the pressure on RMB appreciation.
Some financial institutions predicted that the real effective exchange rate in 2011 will rise by 5%. In December 2011, the RMB real effective exchange rate index was 120.53, rose 1.67% compared with November. In the entire year of 2010, the RMB real effective exchange rate increased by 4.72%. Many institutions forecasted that RMB may appreciate by 4%-6% in 2011. The main factors driving RMB to appreciate included the slow economic recovery, high unemployment rate, etc.
But Chinese economists stated that: simply depending on RMB appreciation is not a key role to prompt China's export. Because the United States and other countries can import goods which China does not produce from other nations.
According to Chinese customs data, it showed that last year China's trade surplus declined 6.4%, to $1, 83.1 billion. Although the overall trade surplus had declined, China's trade surplus with the United States in 2010 rose 26.4%, to $1, 81.27 billion.
Hu Jintao pointed out that the ongoing cross-border RMB trade settlement and experimental investment and trading units of China are aimed at coping with the international financial crisis. The purpose is to promote trade and assist investment.
Meanwhile, China will strengthen intellectual property protection; by providing a transparent legal and policy environment, an open market environment and an efficient administrative environment to facilitate enterprises’ growth.