2011年中国进出口预测与分析
Forecast and analysis on China’s foreign trade in 2011
发布于2011-10-24 16:03 | 次阅读
Released on 2011-10-24 16:03 | readings
  • 中英文对照
  • 中文
  • English

2011年1月22日 ,中国科学院预测科学研究中心和中国经济网联合发布预测报告,以下为《2011年中国进出口预测与分析》全文:

2011年中国对外贸易将保持稳定增长,但增速较2010年明显回落。整体来看,进口情况好于出口,贸易顺差与2010年基本持平。预计2011年,中国进出口总额约为36091亿美元,同比增长21.4%;其中,出口额约为18935亿美元,同比增长20%;进口额约为17156亿美元,同比增长23%。

2011年中国对美国进出口将保持稳定增长,但增速较2010年明显回落,对美国进出口的增速均略低于全国总量增长。预计2011年,中国对美进出口总额约为4645亿美元,同比增长20.5%;其中,出口额约为3400亿美元,同比增长20%;进口额约为1245亿美元,同比增长22%。

2011年中国对欧盟进出口将保持稳定增长,但增速较2010年明显回落,对欧盟进出口的增速可能略高于全国总量增长。预计2011年,中国对欧盟进出口总额约为5847亿美元,同比增长21.9%;其中,出口额约为3766亿美元,同比增长21%;进口额约为2081亿美元,同比增长23.5%。

2011年,中国进出口面对较强的不确定性。应特别关注以下几个方面对进出口的影响:

(1)2011年世界经济总体处于温和增长阶段,但由于大规模经济刺激计划的退出,仍存在一定风险。预计2011年世界经济增长将低于2010年增速,约为4.2%。这将对2011年中国出口造成影响。

(2)2011年中国GDP仍将保持较高增长,增速约为9.8%;“十二五”商务规划提出内需、进口双扩容,进口促进政策的落实将有力促进中国进口。

(3)2010年中国进口价格大幅高企,出口价格回升缓慢,贸易条件明显恶化。2011年,国际大宗商品面临较大的上涨压力,中国进口价格上涨的趋势极有可能继续,中国贸易条件有可能继续恶化,由此将对贸易顺差造成一定的直接与间接影响。

(4)人民币升值压力和贸易摩擦对进出口的影响不容忽视。但是,整体来看,中国进出口的发展仍是机遇大于挑战。

 

The Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CEFS) and China Economic Net jointly released yearly report in Jan. 22nd 2011. The mainly “Forecast and Analysis on China’s Foreign Trade in 2011” provided by CEFS are shown as follows:  

China's foreign trade is expected to maintain steady growth in 2011, but growth will fall compared with 2010. Overall, imports status will be better than exports, and trade surplus will be essentially flat with 2010. It is predicted that China's total imports and exports will be about 3.6091 trillion U.S. dollars in 2011, with an increase of 21.4% compared with last year; export volume will be about 1.8935trillion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 20% compared with last year; import volume will be about 1. 7156 trillion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 23% compared with last year.

China's imports and exports to the United States are expected to maintain steady growth in 2011, but growth will fall compared with 2010, and the growth rate of imports and exports to the United States are slightly lower than the total growth throughout the country. China's total import and export to the United States are expected to be about 464.5 billion U.S. dollars in 2011with an increase of 20.5%compared with last year; export volume to United States will be about 340 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 20% compared with last year; import volume to United21States will be about 124.5 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 22% compared with last year.

China's imports and exports to the EU are expected to maintain steady growth in2011, but growth will fall compared with 2010, and the growth rate of imports and exports to the EU are slightly lower than the total growth throughout the country. China's total imports and exports to the EU are expected to be about 584.7 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 21.9% compared with last year; export volume to EU will be about 376.6 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 21% compared with last year; import volume to EU will be about 208.1 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of23.5% compared with last year.

In 2011, China's foreign trade is confronted with strong uncertainties. The following aspects should be paid special attentions: 

(1) The world economy will be in moderate growth phase in 2011, but because of the withdrawal of large-scale22economic stimulus plan, there will be still risks to some degree. The world economic growth in 2011 is expected to be lower than the rate in 2010, with the rate about 4.2%, which will affect China's exports in 2011. 

(2) China’s GDP growth will remain relatively high in 2011, with the expected growth rate of 9.8%; trading development planning in "The 12th Five-Year Plan" addresses the market expansion of both the domestic demand and import; the implementation of imports promotion policies will effectively drive the development of China's imports.

(3) In 2010, China's import prices were high, while export prices recovered slowly, and the terms of trade showed marked deterioration. In 2011, international bulk commodity prices will face greater rising pressure, and the growing trend of import prices is likely to continue, while China’s terms of trade may continue to deteriorate, which would have direct and indirect effects on the trade surplus. 

(4) Pressure of RMB appreciation and the impact of the foreign trade frictions should not be ignored. But overall, there will be more opportunities than challenges in China's foreign development in 2011. 

2011年1月22日 ,中国科学院预测科学研究中心和中国经济网联合发布预测报告,以下为《2011年中国进出口预测与分析》全文:

2011年中国对外贸易将保持稳定增长,但增速较2010年明显回落。整体来看,进口情况好于出口,贸易顺差与2010年基本持平。预计2011年,中国进出口总额约为36091亿美元,同比增长21.4%;其中,出口额约为18935亿美元,同比增长20%;进口额约为17156亿美元,同比增长23%。

2011年中国对美国进出口将保持稳定增长,但增速较2010年明显回落,对美国进出口的增速均略低于全国总量增长。预计2011年,中国对美进出口总额约为4645亿美元,同比增长20.5%;其中,出口额约为3400亿美元,同比增长20%;进口额约为1245亿美元,同比增长22%。

2011年中国对欧盟进出口将保持稳定增长,但增速较2010年明显回落,对欧盟进出口的增速可能略高于全国总量增长。预计2011年,中国对欧盟进出口总额约为5847亿美元,同比增长21.9%;其中,出口额约为3766亿美元,同比增长21%;进口额约为2081亿美元,同比增长23.5%。

2011年,中国进出口面对较强的不确定性。应特别关注以下几个方面对进出口的影响:

(1)2011年世界经济总体处于温和增长阶段,但由于大规模经济刺激计划的退出,仍存在一定风险。预计2011年世界经济增长将低于2010年增速,约为4.2%。这将对2011年中国出口造成影响。

(2)2011年中国GDP仍将保持较高增长,增速约为9.8%;“十二五”商务规划提出内需、进口双扩容,进口促进政策的落实将有力促进中国进口。

(3)2010年中国进口价格大幅高企,出口价格回升缓慢,贸易条件明显恶化。2011年,国际大宗商品面临较大的上涨压力,中国进口价格上涨的趋势极有可能继续,中国贸易条件有可能继续恶化,由此将对贸易顺差造成一定的直接与间接影响。

(4)人民币升值压力和贸易摩擦对进出口的影响不容忽视。但是,整体来看,中国进出口的发展仍是机遇大于挑战。

 

The Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CEFS) and China Economic Net jointly released yearly report in Jan. 22nd 2011. The mainly “Forecast and Analysis on China’s Foreign Trade in 2011” provided by CEFS are shown as follows:  

China's foreign trade is expected to maintain steady growth in 2011, but growth will fall compared with 2010. Overall, imports status will be better than exports, and trade surplus will be essentially flat with 2010. It is predicted that China's total imports and exports will be about 3.6091 trillion U.S. dollars in 2011, with an increase of 21.4% compared with last year; export volume will be about 1.8935trillion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 20% compared with last year; import volume will be about 1. 7156 trillion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 23% compared with last year.

China's imports and exports to the United States are expected to maintain steady growth in 2011, but growth will fall compared with 2010, and the growth rate of imports and exports to the United States are slightly lower than the total growth throughout the country. China's total import and export to the United States are expected to be about 464.5 billion U.S. dollars in 2011with an increase of 20.5%compared with last year; export volume to United States will be about 340 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 20% compared with last year; import volume to United21States will be about 124.5 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 22% compared with last year.

China's imports and exports to the EU are expected to maintain steady growth in2011, but growth will fall compared with 2010, and the growth rate of imports and exports to the EU are slightly lower than the total growth throughout the country. China's total imports and exports to the EU are expected to be about 584.7 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 21.9% compared with last year; export volume to EU will be about 376.6 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of 21% compared with last year; import volume to EU will be about 208.1 billion U.S. dollars, with an increase of23.5% compared with last year.

In 2011, China's foreign trade is confronted with strong uncertainties. The following aspects should be paid special attentions: 

(1) The world economy will be in moderate growth phase in 2011, but because of the withdrawal of large-scale22economic stimulus plan, there will be still risks to some degree. The world economic growth in 2011 is expected to be lower than the rate in 2010, with the rate about 4.2%, which will affect China's exports in 2011. 

(2) China’s GDP growth will remain relatively high in 2011, with the expected growth rate of 9.8%; trading development planning in "The 12th Five-Year Plan" addresses the market expansion of both the domestic demand and import; the implementation of imports promotion policies will effectively drive the development of China's imports.

(3) In 2010, China's import prices were high, while export prices recovered slowly, and the terms of trade showed marked deterioration. In 2011, international bulk commodity prices will face greater rising pressure, and the growing trend of import prices is likely to continue, while China’s terms of trade may continue to deteriorate, which would have direct and indirect effects on the trade surplus. 

(4) Pressure of RMB appreciation and the impact of the foreign trade frictions should not be ignored. But overall, there will be more opportunities than challenges in China's foreign development in 2011. 

上一篇 下一篇
对本篇文章的质量打分

当前平均分:打分后显示!

-5-4-3-2-1012345
对本文发表评论
点击刷新点击刷新
评论仅代表网友本人的观点,不代表中国经济新闻立场。