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通货膨胀困扰中国
Inflation haunting China
发布于2011-10-21 18:22 | 次阅读
Released on 2011-10-21 18:22 | readings
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据《经济学人》报道，中国是世界经济的重要组成部分，但是中国并没有对世界经济的增长做出贡献：一旦中国增加对其贸易伙伴国的进口来增加后者的GDP，中国蓬勃发展的出口就会减少。国际货币基金组织估计，截止今年10月份，中国经济将增长9.6%。中国已经通过增加利率来遏制使一些原材料和能源价格大幅度地增长的通货膨胀。

通货膨胀是中国自身的重大问题。去年11月份的消费价格指数上涨了5.1%，是28个月以来的增长之最。在物价上涨和外国产品竞争的双重压力之下，中国产品的竞争力就大大降低了。根据我报提供的2008年数据，75%的通货膨胀会造成更高的食品价格，2008年昂贵的食品价格促使通货膨胀超过了8%。联合国粮农组织数字表明，中国的食物通货膨胀已经达到双位数字，越来越多的人担心严重的食品通货膨胀将会广泛影响到其他方面，从而对已经有数以百万的人处于贫困之中的中国的经济和社会稳定产生重大威胁。

很多经济学家认为食品通货膨胀是过热经济的警钟。食品通货膨胀可能会造成更大的需求而不是更少的供给。如果其他消费缩减，这个不一定会引起通货膨胀。但是这样就会造成印度财政部长考西克·巴苏所说的“偏斜通胀”, 由一些价格上涨引起一些列相关产品的增长。瑞士银行的乔纳森·安德森称，许多外界人士认为金融管理局是社会主义计划经济时代未重组的遗留物，是对市场手段缺乏了解的表现。他们担心，经济变得“无法控制”，而容易出现过度投机，随后又会受到笨拙的政治的影响。

《经济学人》称，如果中国不能整治强硬的银行体系和减弱通货膨胀引起的恐慌，其宏观调控的声誉将受损。但是中国的通胀还不会对世界其他经济体造成很大伤害。

According to Economists Magazine, China makes a big contribution to world growth but it does not make such a big contribution to the rest of the world: whatever its growing imports add to the GDP of its trading partners, its burgeoning exports tend to subtract. The International Monetary Fund estimated China’s economy would grow by 9.6 percent in October this year. China has been raising interest rates to stop an inflation spiral which threatens to cause a spike in prices of raw materials and energy.
 
Inflation in China is a serious problem. Last November, consumer prices rose by 5.1%, the fastest increase for 28 months.  As prices rise in China, its goods become less competitive abroad.  Based on the database of our newspaper in 2008, about 75% of China’s inflation is the result of higher food prices, as in 2008 when costly food pushed inflation past 8%. According to The United Nations' food agency (FAO), Food inflation in China is already in double digits, raising fears that the price pressures could spread more broadly to other sectors and pose a threat to both economic and social stability as millions of Chinese live in poverty.
 
Many economists consider food inflation to be an early warning for an overheated economy. Food inflation may, therefore, reflect stronger demand rather than weaker supply. If the share of spending on other things were to shrink, this need not be inflationary. But the rejuggling will cause what Kaushik Basu of India’s Ministry of Finance has called “skewflation”, a rise in one set of prices relative to others. According to Jonathan Anderson of UBS, many outsiders see “the monetary authorities as unreconstructed relics of the socialist planning era without much grasp of market tools.” They fear that the economy is ‘“beyond control”, prone to speculative excesses followed by clumsy crackdowns.

“Economists” alleged if China cannot tame its headstrong banking system and quell inflationary expectations, its reputation for macroeconomic management will suffer.  

据《经济学人》报道，中国是世界经济的重要组成部分，但是中国并没有对世界经济的增长做出贡献：一旦中国增加对其贸易伙伴国的进口来增加后者的GDP，中国蓬勃发展的出口就会减少。国际货币基金组织估计，截止今年10月份，中国经济将增长9.6%。中国已经通过增加利率来遏制使一些原材料和能源价格大幅度地增长的通货膨胀。

通货膨胀是中国自身的重大问题。去年11月份的消费价格指数上涨了5.1%，是28个月以来的增长之最。在物价上涨和外国产品竞争的双重压力之下，中国产品的竞争力就大大降低了。根据我报提供的2008年数据，75%的通货膨胀会造成更高的食品价格，2008年昂贵的食品价格促使通货膨胀超过了8%。联合国粮农组织数字表明，中国的食物通货膨胀已经达到双位数字，越来越多的人担心严重的食品通货膨胀将会广泛影响到其他方面，从而对已经有数以百万的人处于贫困之中的中国的经济和社会稳定产生重大威胁。

很多经济学家认为食品通货膨胀是过热经济的警钟。食品通货膨胀可能会造成更大的需求而不是更少的供给。如果其他消费缩减，这个不一定会引起通货膨胀。但是这样就会造成印度财政部长考西克·巴苏所说的“偏斜通胀”, 由一些价格上涨引起一些列相关产品的增长。瑞士银行的乔纳森·安德森称，许多外界人士认为金融管理局是社会主义计划经济时代未重组的遗留物，是对市场手段缺乏了解的表现。他们担心，经济变得“无法控制”，而容易出现过度投机，随后又会受到笨拙的政治的影响。

《经济学人》称，如果中国不能整治强硬的银行体系和减弱通货膨胀引起的恐慌，其宏观调控的声誉将受损。但是中国的通胀还不会对世界其他经济体造成很大伤害。

According to Economists Magazine, China makes a big contribution to world growth but it does not make such a big contribution to the rest of the world: whatever its growing imports add to the GDP of its trading partners, its burgeoning exports tend to subtract. The International Monetary Fund estimated China’s economy would grow by 9.6 percent in October this year. China has been raising interest rates to stop an inflation spiral which threatens to cause a spike in prices of raw materials and energy.
 
Inflation in China is a serious problem. Last November, consumer prices rose by 5.1%, the fastest increase for 28 months.  As prices rise in China, its goods become less competitive abroad.  Based on the database of our newspaper in 2008, about 75% of China’s inflation is the result of higher food prices, as in 2008 when costly food pushed inflation past 8%. According to The United Nations' food agency (FAO), Food inflation in China is already in double digits, raising fears that the price pressures could spread more broadly to other sectors and pose a threat to both economic and social stability as millions of Chinese live in poverty.
 
Many economists consider food inflation to be an early warning for an overheated economy. Food inflation may, therefore, reflect stronger demand rather than weaker supply. If the share of spending on other things were to shrink, this need not be inflationary. But the rejuggling will cause what Kaushik Basu of India’s Ministry of Finance has called “skewflation”, a rise in one set of prices relative to others. According to Jonathan Anderson of UBS, many outsiders see “the monetary authorities as unreconstructed relics of the socialist planning era without much grasp of market tools.” They fear that the economy is ‘“beyond control”, prone to speculative excesses followed by clumsy crackdowns.

“Economists” alleged if China cannot tame its headstrong banking system and quell inflationary expectations, its reputation for macroeconomic management will suffer.  

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