2011年1月银行家信心指数上升
Bankers’ confidence index rose in January 2011
发布于2011-10-21 18:09 | 次阅读
Released on 2011-10-21 18:09 | readings
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中国人民银行公布的调查结果显示,2011年第1季度,中国银行家信心指数有所上升,贷款需求指数连续两个季度提高。这基本符合2009年第4季度对下季宏观经济继续看好、认为当前货币政策适度的银行家比例上升、贷款需求指数继续下降与银行业景气指数持续上升走势的预测。

央行“2011年第1季度全国银行家问卷调查”显示,1季度银行家宏观经济信心指数回升至55.3%,比上季度提高1.9个百分点。银行贷款需求指数为85.2%, 较上季度提高2.1个百分点,且连续两个季度攀升。09年第4季度银行家宏观经济预期指数为49.9%, 环比上升4个百分点;该结果超出了预期指数。而在贷款需求指数方面,相较于09年第4季度贷款需求指数为67%,环比下降1个百分点,呈现攀升走势。

根据央行调查结果且分行业看,制造业的贷款需求略有提高,农业与非制造业的贷款需求下滑,房地产业和建筑业的贷款需求指数回落;而09年第4季时,农业与非制造业的贷款需求已开始下降1个百分点;制造业贷款需求指数为61.9%,基本与上季持平。

从企业规模看,大型企业的贷款需求指数回落,中小型企业的贷款需求指数提高。

央行调查同时显示,第1季度中国银行业当期景气指数为84%,比上季度下降3.2个百分点;相较于09年第4季度银行业预期景气指数69.5%,环比提高1.7个百分点来说,基本符合预期走势。

此外,第1季度中国银行家货币政策感受指数(选择货币政策“适度”的银行家占比)回落至39.4%,较上季降低了13个百分点,连续两个季度下降。对于下季货币政策,32.1%的银行家预期将保持现有适度水平,较上季下降9.3个百分点;66.1%预期“趋紧”,较上季大幅提高15.8个百分点;1.8%预期“趋松”,较上季下降6.5个百分点。

According to the recent survey released by People's Bank of China, for the first quarter of 2011, Chinese banker confidence index has increased and loan demand index has been improved for two consecutive quarters, broadly in line with the forecast of the fourth quarter of 2009 that macroeconomic development would continue to be optimistic for the next quarter, the number of bankers that think the current monetary policy appropriate would rise, the demand for loans would continue to decline and the banking climate index would continue showing rising trend.

"The National Bankers’ survey of the first quarter of 2011" by central bank, shows that the macroeconomic confidence index of bankers rose to 55.3% with an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous quarter. Demand for bank loans index was 85.2% with an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous quarter, rising for two consecutive quarters. As for the fourth quarter of 2009, banker macroeconomic expectation index was 49.9% with an increase of 4% quarter on quarter; the results exceeded expectations index. The demand for loans index, compared to fourth quarter 2009, was 67% with a decline of 1%, showing a rising trend.

According to central bank’s survey, judging from the industry, the loan demand of manufacturing industry increased slightly, loan demand for agricultural and non-manufacturing industry declined, loan demand index for real estate and construction industry declined; During the fourth quarter of 2009, the loan demand of agriculture and non-manufacturing industry has started to decline by 1%; the loan demand index for manufacturing industry was 61.9%, basically unchanged from the previous quarter.

Looking from the scale of enterprise, loan demand index for large corporate drop and the index of demand for loans for small and medium enterprises increased.

The central bank survey also revealed that China's current banking climate index is 84% with a decline of 3.2% sequentially compared to the expected 69.5% climate index for the fourth quarter of 2009 with an increase of 1.7% quarter on quarter and basically meet the expected trend.

In addition, Chinese bankers’ monetary policy sentiment index (proportion of bankers who chose that monetary policy was "appropriate") dropped by 39.4% which is 13% lower than the previous quarter for two consecutive quarters of decline. As for the monetary policy for the next quarter, 32.1% of the bankers expected to maintain the current moderate level with a decline of 9.3% over the previous quarter; 66.1% expected a "tight" with a substantial 15.8% increase over the previous quarter; 1.8% expected a "loose" over the previous quarter with a 6.5% decline.

中国人民银行公布的调查结果显示,2011年第1季度,中国银行家信心指数有所上升,贷款需求指数连续两个季度提高。这基本符合2009年第4季度对下季宏观经济继续看好、认为当前货币政策适度的银行家比例上升、贷款需求指数继续下降与银行业景气指数持续上升走势的预测。

央行“2011年第1季度全国银行家问卷调查”显示,1季度银行家宏观经济信心指数回升至55.3%,比上季度提高1.9个百分点。银行贷款需求指数为85.2%, 较上季度提高2.1个百分点,且连续两个季度攀升。09年第4季度银行家宏观经济预期指数为49.9%, 环比上升4个百分点;该结果超出了预期指数。而在贷款需求指数方面,相较于09年第4季度贷款需求指数为67%,环比下降1个百分点,呈现攀升走势。

根据央行调查结果且分行业看,制造业的贷款需求略有提高,农业与非制造业的贷款需求下滑,房地产业和建筑业的贷款需求指数回落;而09年第4季时,农业与非制造业的贷款需求已开始下降1个百分点;制造业贷款需求指数为61.9%,基本与上季持平。

从企业规模看,大型企业的贷款需求指数回落,中小型企业的贷款需求指数提高。

央行调查同时显示,第1季度中国银行业当期景气指数为84%,比上季度下降3.2个百分点;相较于09年第4季度银行业预期景气指数69.5%,环比提高1.7个百分点来说,基本符合预期走势。

此外,第1季度中国银行家货币政策感受指数(选择货币政策“适度”的银行家占比)回落至39.4%,较上季降低了13个百分点,连续两个季度下降。对于下季货币政策,32.1%的银行家预期将保持现有适度水平,较上季下降9.3个百分点;66.1%预期“趋紧”,较上季大幅提高15.8个百分点;1.8%预期“趋松”,较上季下降6.5个百分点。

According to the recent survey released by People's Bank of China, for the first quarter of 2011, Chinese banker confidence index has increased and loan demand index has been improved for two consecutive quarters, broadly in line with the forecast of the fourth quarter of 2009 that macroeconomic development would continue to be optimistic for the next quarter, the number of bankers that think the current monetary policy appropriate would rise, the demand for loans would continue to decline and the banking climate index would continue showing rising trend.

"The National Bankers’ survey of the first quarter of 2011" by central bank, shows that the macroeconomic confidence index of bankers rose to 55.3% with an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous quarter. Demand for bank loans index was 85.2% with an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous quarter, rising for two consecutive quarters. As for the fourth quarter of 2009, banker macroeconomic expectation index was 49.9% with an increase of 4% quarter on quarter; the results exceeded expectations index. The demand for loans index, compared to fourth quarter 2009, was 67% with a decline of 1%, showing a rising trend.

According to central bank’s survey, judging from the industry, the loan demand of manufacturing industry increased slightly, loan demand for agricultural and non-manufacturing industry declined, loan demand index for real estate and construction industry declined; During the fourth quarter of 2009, the loan demand of agriculture and non-manufacturing industry has started to decline by 1%; the loan demand index for manufacturing industry was 61.9%, basically unchanged from the previous quarter.

Looking from the scale of enterprise, loan demand index for large corporate drop and the index of demand for loans for small and medium enterprises increased.

The central bank survey also revealed that China's current banking climate index is 84% with a decline of 3.2% sequentially compared to the expected 69.5% climate index for the fourth quarter of 2009 with an increase of 1.7% quarter on quarter and basically meet the expected trend.

In addition, Chinese bankers’ monetary policy sentiment index (proportion of bankers who chose that monetary policy was "appropriate") dropped by 39.4% which is 13% lower than the previous quarter for two consecutive quarters of decline. As for the monetary policy for the next quarter, 32.1% of the bankers expected to maintain the current moderate level with a decline of 9.3% over the previous quarter; 66.1% expected a "tight" with a substantial 15.8% increase over the previous quarter; 1.8% expected a "loose" over the previous quarter with a 6.5% decline.

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